Mathematical Modelling – Comparing HIV Risk Between MSM Donation Strategies

Mathematical models to estimate risk was one of the research priorities of the MSM Research Grant Program. The goal of this project is to estimate the risk of an HIV infectious unit of blood not being detected on testing for different possible donor deferral policies that would permit MSM to donate blood. An international team of experts in mathematical modelling has refined a model that was previously developed by the team for time based MSM deferrals. The team have been focused on risk modelling related to MSM blood donor policy in Canada over the last year and meet by teleconference monthly, as well as a face-to-face meeting in June 2018. Modelling of risk with shorter time deferrals (3 months, 4 months and 6 months) is in progress. Preliminary discussion about modelling risk of possible plasma apheresis options have commenced. The team will draw upon current research data as well as new data arising the MSM Research Grant Program as a basis for the estimates. By comparing the risk of various possible deferral policies, informed decisions can be made as to which policy would permit MSM to donate blood without compromising recipient safety.

O'BRIEN, Sheila

Canadian Blood Services

MSM Research Grant Program

Ontario

$24,000